Zero-SP Draft Strategy
Are you drafting your starting pitching too early?
Fantasy football managers may already be familiar with the idea of the Zero-Wide Receiver and Zero-Running Back draft strategies. The principle behind Zero-Starting Pitcher (Zero-SP) remains the same in fantasy baseball- wait on the titular position in order to prioritize drafting other positions that are much shallower in your league.
To be clear, Zero-SP is not the same as the classic reliever-only/Marmol draft strategy. The name is only meant to imply that you avoid drafting starting pitchers in the early rounds and instead concentrate on building your rotation later in the draft, ideally allowing you to fill out your position players with the maximum amount of home runs possible.
Why should I try a Zero-SP draft?
The case for the Zero-SP draft strategy is stronger than ever in 2023. To sum it up in 10 words or less: Fewer 200-inning starters, SPRAINS, and chase power early!
Over the past 25 qualified seasons, we’ve seen a sharp decline in the number of starting pitchers with 200+ innings pitched (IP) as illustrated below. Note: While this graph spans a 26-year period, we are excluding the 2020 campaign as no pitcher exceeded 85 innings pitched.
In case the image isn't clickable. (Data courtesy of FanGraphs)
“But Justin, surely you can’t be serious. Shouldn’t starters be even more valuable if innings pitched have become this rare?“
I am serious- and my last name isn’t Shirley.
If we were able to guarantee which pitchers would consistently cross the 200 IP threshold, then that would be a much more compelling point. However, Miami Marlins superstar Sandy Alcantara appears to be the only player in all of baseball that can be relied on for such an elite level of both quantity and quality.
Unfortunately, only one team in each fantasy league will be able to draft Alcantara. Plus there’s always the potential that such a high volume of innings pitched over the past few seasons may make him more vulnerable to an injury in 2023 (please, knock on wood that I haven’t written this into existence). This leads right into my next point- SPRAINS.
SPRAINS is an acronym of mine that stands for Starting Pitchers Really Are Injured Non-Stop.
Simply put, there are very few elite pitchers without an extensive injury history at the major league level. According to Pitcher List, there are currently 26 aces in the league. Chicago White Sox starter Dylan Cease is the only one of those yet to record an injury since coming up from the minor leagues and unsurprisingly every one of those injured aces has experienced at least one upper-body injury.
SPRAINS! (Learn it. Memorize it. Live by it.)
Given the volatility of picking starting pitchers within the first five rounds of the draft, shifting to the Zero-SP philosophy allows you to emphasize chasing power early. If you’re reading this during spring training, then you may have already lost an early draft pick to Tommy John surgery. Long-time fantasy managers will certainly recognize this as a borderline tradition of draft season.
So why regret leaving that elite power hitter on the board when you could instead bury your leaguemates in home runs? After all, power is much more difficult to find on the waiver wire than pitching.
For those that aren’t enjoying the pool of hitters that are typically available in the middle rounds right now, consider how different your rosters would look if you drafted your position players early and used most of your picks in the middle rounds on pitching. It’s at least worth trying in a mock draft. You can always blame yours truly for the concept!
Now that I have all of you on board with this idea, let’s take a look at exactly what the Zero-SP draft strategy can do for your roster construction.
Build A: Mild Zero-SP
If you’re a risk-averse manager who rarely drafts pitching in the first couple of rounds then the mild Zero-SP build in the image below should already look quite familiar.
Every Zero-SP build follows some variation of the same three core principles:
Pick between two and four starters early to act as your anchors
Not all aces are anchors, however.
Jacob deGrom, Clayton Kershaw, and Tyler Glasnow are all examples of elite starting pitchers that shouldn’t be drafted as anchors due to their injury risk. If you’re particularly fond of a specific injury-prone starter then this is the build that you’ll want to target, as you can balance your overall innings pitched with one of these glass cannons.
Limit your vulnerabilities
This is one of the main ideas behind the Zero-SP philosophy. Your goal should be to come out of every draft with as few weaknesses as possible that you might need to address on the waiver wire and/or via trades. It’s often best to identify one or two positions that you anticipate being the deepest in your league and aim to draft them late so that your roster stays as balanced as possible throughout the draft.
Most Zero-SP builds will emphasize drafting at least one closer early, as securing a stable source of saves is even more important when waiting to build your rotation. This will help protect your pitching ratios and allow you to focus your resources on adding more depth to your pitching staff in the middle rounds.
Know your league’s scoring settings well
Quick. How much is a stolen base worth in your upcoming draft(s)? Is your league saves-only or saves & holds?
Unless stolen bases are less valuable in your league format or you plan on punting the category entirely, managers using the mild build may want to prioritize drafting position players that offer power/speed combos in order to maximize your category coverage early.
Similarly, in saves & holds leagues there’s less of a need to draft a closer in the early rounds as you can find a lot of valuable relievers late in your drafts and/or on the waiver wire. Traditionally, bullpen arms are cheaper to acquire as well in terms of both trade value and Free-Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB). Remember- you are the expert on your league settings, your leaguemates, and your own personal strengths & weaknesses. Trust your gut!
Note: This mock draft was completed on December 28th, 2022.
Highlights:
This was a standard 5x5 scoring, H2H Categories, 12-team Yahoo league. Roster settings included three outfield, one utility, and five bench spots.
My mock draft took place before separate news stories broke on both Liam Hendriks and Mike Clevinger. Without playing the revisionist history card too much here, Emmanuel Clase and Taijuan Walker are the most likely picks that I would’ve made in those spots.
Putting Xander Bogaerts in my utility spot gave me a solid boost across all five categories. Bogaerts will play at the top of the San Diego Padres lineup this season and the MLB’s latest rule changes are expected to create an uptick in stolen bases. This could be a career year for the 30-year-old shortstop.
Clayton Kershaw was admittedly a risky pick but with Kevin Gausman and Max Fried as my anchors, along with a closer already locked up, I felt comfortable enough that I could secure more innings pitched later in the draft. This game plan paid off given that high-volume starters such as Walker and Miles Mikolas inevitably went undrafted. In a shallow league format like this one, there would be plenty of options available on the waiver wire throughout the season.
The mild Zero-SP build is the option that you will probably want to use in deep redraft leagues such as NFBC or a guillotine league. If you want to try the Zero-SP draft strategy in a keeper or dynasty format, this is likely the best build for you. Whether or not you should consider a third anchor will entirely depend on your confidence level with starting pitching.
Again, be sure to check your league’s scoring settings as you may be able to punt categories like stolen bases or saves and emphasize home runs even more, depending on how they are weighed in your league.
Build B: Balanced Zero-SP
The balanced Zero-SP build is quite similar to the mild build. Managers using the balanced draft strategy will often pick only two or three anchors though and may wait until as late as the 12th round to round out their anchors.
You should still take a closer early to limit your vulnerabilities as you likely don’t want to be caught searching for both starting and relief pitching at the same time. Doing so may hinder your ability to improve your roster overall, as your resources become spread thin quite easily. You only have a set amount of FAAB per season and if you plan on entering the trade market, inactive managers can restrict your options quickly.
Depending on your league’s scoring settings you may also wish to abandon stolen bases or saves entirely and concentrate solely on chasing power. That makes this format well-suited to saves & holds leagues, as well as most points leagues- the less emphasis there is on innings pitched, the more successful the balanced draft strategy can be for you.
Note: This mock draft was completed on January 25th, 2023 during PitchCon.
Highlights:
This was a standard 5x5 scoring, H2H Categories, 12-team Yahoo league. Roster settings included three outfield, two utility, and five bench spots.
As hinted at above, I abandoned my focus on power/speed combos this time to prioritize power above all else, while still maintaining a strong pitching staff.
My outfield wound up being a bit thinner than I would’ve liked. Juan Soto, Eloy Jiménez, Steven Kwan, and Hunter Renfroe form a stable enough core to open the season with though, especially given that the outfield is one of the deepest positions on the waiver wire. The pitching available in the last two rounds was far too tempting for me to add a fifth outfielder here.
After drafting six starting pitchers that I was confident in and loading up on innings pitched, I was able to round out this rotation with a pair of volatile upside plays in Grayson Rodriguez and Kenta Maeda.
A balanced Zero-SP build works best in shallow redraft leagues, but can also be used in points-based keeper or dynasty formats. In saves & holds leagues, you can even pivot to mid-to-late round closer options or high-leverage relievers to help you address stolen bases or batting average.
Build C: Hardcore Zero-SP
As a wise man once said, “Well you’re not hardcore, unless you live hardcore…” and the legend of the Zero-SP draft is way hardcore!
The rule of thumb with the hardcore Zero-SP build is one anchor in shallow leagues and two in deep leagues.
Managers that prefer a hardcore build will often wait to pick their relievers until after the 15th round. Since most deep leagues tend to see much more of their FAAB spent on power hitters and starting pitching than on bullpen arms, you can often acquire saves (and holds) for cheap in-season. Waiting on your closers-or high-leverage relievers-can also help balance your roster between power, speed, and batting average in these leagues.
Note: This mock draft was completed on January 28th, 2023.
Highlights:
This was a TGFBI-style mock draft- meaning a standard 5x5 scoring, Rotisserie, 15-team NFBC league format. Roster settings included two catchers, one corner infield, one middle infield, five outfield, one utility, and seven bench spots.
I decided to play the draft board here with my anchors and landed Luis Castillo and Joe Musgrove back-to-back as my fifth- and sixth-round picks. Values like that are one of the reasons why I love this strategy so much.
Speaking of value, Michael Kopech is going so late right now that it’s ridiculous. In the 20th round, he doesn’t need to improve his command much to become an absolute steal and you should have an easy roster decision to make at the start of the season if the command simply isn’t there for Kopech.
Again, don’t be afraid to punt saves here! I drafted Jorge López and Joe Mantiply late for the strikeouts and ratios. Any upside that that ability creates for either to take over the closer role is simply an added bonus. You can always fill out your bullpen throughout the season.
This build works best in shallow redraft leagues and is not for the faint of heart, especially if used in deep leagues.
If you’ve consistently noticed that the pitchers that you pick up off the waiver wire underperform, then you may want to aim for one of the other two builds above.
Final Thoughts
So let’s do a quick recap.
As fewer pitchers cross the 200-innings pitched threshold, the likelihood of drafting such high-quality and high-volume starters in the first few rounds of the draft has also fallen off. That’s only further exaggerated by the injury risk that comes with being a starting pitcher. Remember- SPRAINS. Since 30+ home run hitters have become much harder to find on the waiver wire, the importance of chasing power early in the draft has skyrocketed.
In order to be successful with a Zero-SP build you will need to take somewhere between one and four anchors in the first 10-12 rounds, depending on your league format and settings.
Don’t forget to check these league settings! How much each category is worth should directly impact how you draft each position. Remember the goal here is to limit your vulnerabilities and maximize your category coverage.
Now that you’ve been sufficiently hyped and are undoubtedly eager to try out the Zero-SP builds that I’ve outlined here, I’ll leave you with a convenient list of starters to target as we journey through draft season together.
Good luck in your drafts!
Preseason Zero-SP Targets:
Tyler Mahle
Nathan Eovaldi
Tyler Anderson
Michael Kopech
Kodai Senga
Sean Manaea
José Urquidy
Tylor Megill/David Peterson
MacKenzie Gore
Taijuan Walker
Justin Steele
Steven Matz
Spencer Turnbull
Tarik Skubal
Drey Jameson